Why History Rhymes
“History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes” is a saying that is often attributed to Mark Twain although there is no actual proof of him making that quote. There’s a very good chance that the genesis of this quote goes much further back in human history. Regardless of its origins, this old adage contains more than an element of truth.
While history technical does not repeat itself, why do the same types of instances seem to occur over and over throughout the course of human history?
Empires inevitably grow and collapse along roughly the same trajectory. Politicians and populaces fall prey to old, worn out ideologies that never worked before thinking this time will be different. Governments start out small and with the best intentions only to become bloated with debt and dysfunction unable to deliver on any of its promises. Why is it we never learn from the past?
It turns out that there may be a relatively simple explanation for this perpetual cycle. That’s the good news. The bad news is that we will most likely remain slave to the mercy of this cycle and its whims.
Many of the podcasts and newsletters I follow often point out that we are most likely in a Fourth Turning. These people are referencing a book called The Fourth Turning written by William Strauss and Neil Howe. After hearing it mentioned several times, I finally bought the book and I’m about halfway through.
I’m going to summarize what I’ve read so far, but would highly encourage everyone to pick this up. It is a fascinating take on history, as well as, what may be waiting for us after we complete the Fourth Turning. Keep in mind that this book was written in 1997, before the Third Turning had completed.
According to the authors, it essentially boils down to the fact that humans operate within a cycle that spans the length of a long human life, approximately 80-100 years. This cycle is called a saeculum.
Within this saeculum are 4 turnings that comprise the seasonal rhythm of this cycle. These 4 turnings are very similar to the 4 physical seasons we experience during the course of the year.
The First Turning (spring) is a High. This is usually an era of optimism where institutions strengthen and old values decay. The High for the current saeculum began at the end of World War II.
The Second Turning (summer) is an Awakening. This is a time of spiritual upheaval in which the civic order of the high comes under attack by a younger generation with a different values regime. The Awakening for the current saeculum began in the mid-1960s and ran through the early 80s.
The Third Turning (fall) is an Unraveling. This is a time when institutions weaken, and the old civic order decays and is replaced by the new values regime that was being pushed during the Second Turning. The Unraveling of this saeculum began in the mid-1980s and ran roughly until 2005. Reminder, this book was written in 1997.
The Fourth Turning (winter) is a Crisis, and is a time of upheaval wherein the values regime advances the replacement of the old civic order. We are currently in the midst of a Fourth Turning that will probably end sometime in the next 5 or so years.
Once the Fourth Turning ends, a new High will emerge with the First Turning of the new saeculum. Exactly what it looks like no one knows, but it will likely have a many similarities to all of the previous First Turnings, just as every Second, Third, and Fourth turning are similar to their respective turnings of previous saeculae.
What drives the seasonality of these turnings?
In short, each generation born plays a role, and like the turnings in which they are born, each generation resembles in some aspects the prior generations born in their respective turnings. It seems that Hero and Prophet archetype generations in particular believe they know what the grand solutions are to all that ail us, and push these ideas and values on the rest of the population.
The differences between generations are a result of what each previous generation has done. As in physics, each action has an opposite and equal reaction and we bounce back and forth like a tennis ball being volleyed between two players.
We continue to take our trip around the saeculum not realizing that there is nothing that hasn’t already been tried and there is no perfect solution or Utopia. As I like to say, be careful what you wish for, you just may get it.
The book goes in-depth on the different generations, and how they shape the saeculum. I’ll leave it up to you to dive in and learn more about where you as an individual fit into this puzzle that rearranges itself every 80 or so years.
I want to use the rest of this post to share some excerpts from pages 6 & 7of the book that have some eerie prescience considering this was written well before the current Fourth Turning began.
History is seasonal and winter is coming. Like nature’s winter, the saecular winter can come early or late. A Fourth Turning can be long and difficult, brief but severe, or (perhaps) mild. But, like winter, it cannot be averted. It must come in turn.
Here, in summary, is what the rhythms of modern history warn about America’s future.
The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire. Yet this time of trouble will bring seeds of social rebirth. Americans will share regret about recent mistakes - and a resolute new consensus about what to do. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.
The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort - in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it. In the Civil War, the two capital cities would surely have incinerated each other had the means been at hand. In World War II, America invented a new technology of annihilation, which the nation swiftly put to use. This time, America will enter a Fourth Turning with the means to inflict unimaginable horrors and, perhaps, will confront adversaries who possess the same.
Yet Americans will also enter the Fourth Turning with a unique opportunity to achieve a new greatness as a people. Many despair that values that were new in the 1960s are today so entwined with social dysfunction and cultural decay that they can no longer lead anywhere positive. Through the current unravelling era, that is probably true. But in the crucible of a Crisis, that will change. As the old civic order gives way, Americans will have to craft a new one. This will require a values consensus and, to administer it, the empowerment of a strong new political regime. If all goes well, there could be a renaissance of civic trust, and more: Today’s Third Turning problems - that Rubik’s Cube of crime, race, money, family, culture, and ethics - will snap into a Fourth Turning solution. America’s post-Crisis answers will be as organically interconnected as today’s pre-Crisis questions seem hopelessly tangled. By the 2020s, America could become a society that is good, by today’s standards, and also one that works.
Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse - or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.
I do not profess to know or even speculate how this Fourth Turning will end. It could get even worse than what we are experiencing right now, and the more dire predictions seem almost set in stone. Yet often times in our darkest hour is when we see the first rays of hope.
What I do know for sure is that things will change one way or another, and preparation will be paramount to survive this Fourth Turning to witness the new High of the First Turning, whatever that may be.